This way to the Big Dance

While researching the New Mexico men's basketball team's NCAA Tournament credentials something Jay Bilas said caught my ear.

"The key is who can you beat," said Bilas, the ESPN hoops analyst, during tonight's Marquette-Villanova game.

Then Bilas asked the question that the Lobos will have to answer if they are to be invited to the Big Dance: "Have you proven that you can beat the good teams that you are going to see in the NCAA Tournament?"

The response for UNM, at this point, is no.

But Steve Alford's team seems to be surging in that direction. The Lobos have won six straight, including two historic, back-to-back wins at Air Force (first time since 2001) and Utah (first time since 1989).

The season's stretch run will tell much about UNM's chances.

Obviously a Mountain West Conference tournament title will get the Lobos in. Let's look at what they'd have to do to receive an at-large bid from the selection committee.

This has been discussed a lot locally -- by newspaper columnists, talk radio hosts and message board maniacs. Everybody seems to have a scenario in which the Lobos can get invited to the NCAA Tournament even if they lose in the conference semifinals.

No way.

So, then, I guess the first facet of my scenario is clear.

The Lobos must advance to the finals of the MWC Tournament. UNM's resume is devoid of quality wins, at least those that sparkle enough to impress the committee. Playing in the conference title game likely will get the Lobos three games each against MWC's top shelf: BYU and UNLV. Three shots at those two teams would give the Lobos a better chance of achieving the next aspect of my scenario ...

The Lobos must take two of three from BYU or UNLV: UNM already has been blown out by both teams. That hurts. Erasing this blemish begins Tuesday night when the Lobos face BYU at The Pit, it's the first of consecutive home games against the conference's targeted teams. Beating one of these teams twice during the next few weeks should stand out enough to get the Lobos dancing -- even if UNM falls to the other in the MWC title game.

See, it's simple.

Without these two steps, the Lobos are a lock for the NIT.

That's evident in their resume ...

The Good

• RPI. According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi the Lobos rank 44th, placing them third in the MWC behind BYU (27) and UNLV (31)
• Record. No team in the conference has more wins than UNM (22-6)
• MWC strength. Lunardi also ranks the Mountain West as ninth nationally.

The Bad

• No big wins. The Lobos victim with the highest RPI is Texas Tech (53), but the Red Raiders won't get an at-large bid
• Weak schedule. Of 341 Division I teams, the Lobos schedule strength is 167th. In non-conference games its 258th. That's what Presbyterian (327), Loyola Marymount (297) and Eastern Washington (287) gets you.
• Fifteen of the Lobos 22 wins came against teams ranked 151st or lower. UNM is 0-3 versus the teams with a top 50 RPI. UNM also lost to TCU (195).

*****

At least one voter for the Associated Press top 25 poll thinks the Lobos are the MWC's best team. Bill Riley, who works for KALL-AM radio in Salt Lake City, gave UNM its lone vote in this week's poll. He didn't vote for any other MWC teams.