Nice win Lobos ... now do it again

With TV cameras rolling and reporters' pens scribbling, Steve Alford is generally subdued.

With 18,018 emotional Lobos fans hanging on the basketball coach's every word after Tuesday's win over UNLV, Alford changed.

He summoned his inner showman.

"We will not be in the NIT," Alford announced from The Pit floor during a postgame Senior Night ceremony.

The implication, of course, is that the Lobos will be going to the NCAA Tournament. And it doesn't take a mental long jump to infer that Alford thought the impressive 59-45 shutdown of the Rebels was the deciding factor.

It was, after all, UNM's 23rd win and 10th in Mountain West Conference play. It was the Lobos seventh win in eight games. It was their best win, in terms of opponent RPI (the Rebels were 26th coming in).

Moments later -- having returned to typical decaffeinated mode in front of the gathered media -- Alford said he thought a win at Colorado State would be the final hurdle between the Lobos and an at-large bid.

Sorry, that's not enough.

As I've written before, UNM will have to advance to the MWC Tournament championship game and they'll probably have to beat UNLV again to get there. Tuesday's win doesn't change that.

I say probably only because it's possible that the Rebels will get upset before playing the Lobos. However that is hard to imagine considering UNLV and UNM likely will meet in the semifinals -- it would take UNLV losing what is essentially a home game against one of the MWC's weakest teams in the opening round. Ain't happening.

Think about what it means if the Lobos play the Rebels and lose. That would give two of three meetings to UNLV. That would make UNM 1-4 against the league's best teams. It would mean the Lobos best wins came against a team that won the season series (UNLV) and another that won't get an at-large invitation (Texas Tech). And many of their 23 other wins would have come against a wet toilet paper-weak schedule.

Alford highlighted his team's total wins and conference wins. While impressive, this isn't the Big Ten, a major conference in which those numbers would stamp a ticket to the NCAAs. It's the Mountain West Conference, a mid-major.

This is not to say UNM can't beat UNLV in the MWC Tourney; Tuesday proved that.

But, as big as Tuesday's win was, the Big Dance isn't a sure thing. The Lobos still have a lot of work to do.